Since touching a 12-year low on March 9, 2009, the Dow has bounced more than 61%. Over the same timeframe, the S&P 500 has soared 72% and the NASDAQ has jumped 84%. These eye-popping numbers could lead one to believe that all is right with the world...or at least that all is much better than it was one year ago.
But your editors are skeptical of this assessment. It's true that the widespread panic of early 2009 is gone and the crisis mentality has vanished. But here in early 2010, the seeds of the next crisis are germinating nicely.
Even without any new problems, the economy is still struggling with serious difficulties like sky-high unemployment and stubbornly high mortgage defaults. But new problems are already on their way. In the private sector, for example, commercial real estate defaults are rising exponentially. That's bad. Over in the public sector, government indebtedness is rising exponentially. That's really bad.
Read more and comment ...It was October 2006, one year before the subprime mortgage crisis hit the nation (and most of the world). TV’s financial pundits were still giddy with excitement over the seemingly never-ending increase in home values, and most Americans thought the good times were here to stay.
In the same month, Doug Casey wrote:
| I believe it’s going to get much worse. As people who bought houses with floating-rate mortgages and little money down slip into default, millions of dwellings will hit a no-bid market. And when hundreds of billions in loans go bad, the institutions holding them and the whole American financial structure will be threatened with a deflationary collapse. Millions of people could lose their jobs in an economy that just doesn’t need that many mortgage brokers, real estate speculators, and McMansion builders – or waiters at restaurants those brokers, speculators, and builders can no longer afford. The Fed will try to prevent this by creating more dollars. But then foreigners – and smart Americans – will treat the currency units like hot potatoes. |
Pretty darn insightful. But despite all appearances to the contrary, Doug’s insights do not depend on prophetic powers. What Doug does is the real deal – a combination of good old-fashioned hard work, a profound knowledge of history and economic principles, and an unfailing instinct for lucrative investments.
Read more and comment ...While the full stochastics are back to being overbought we have the potential for some movement on the upside this week. As of mid-day Monday, the S&P 500 is stuck between a rock and a hard place — 1111 and 1127.
Read more and comment ...Whether you are bullish, bearish, or somewhere in between, the odds are that when Warren Buffett talks... you will be listening.
A real life E.F. Hutton, the grandfatherly Buffet is still the best brand in the business.
But then again, there aren't many investors in the world that can turn $1200 from a paper route into one of the greatest fortunes of all time. In that regard, Buffett's reputation came the old fashioned way: he earned it.
The reasons behind this iconic image, however, are two-fold, since Buffett is not exactly your run-of-the-mill billionaire.
Instead, he's an American everyman that not only exudes common sense, but dines primarily on hamburgers, chips, and Cherry Coke.
But buried beneath that cuddly, down-home exterior is something else entirely: the cold and calculating mind of man who is quick to make decisions and has a serious nose for money — a market shark if there ever was one.
And the larger truth is that if you really want to know something about the road ahead, it pays to listen to someone that has been there before.
That's true now more than ever as investors wrestle with the ghosts of the Great Depression and ponder the possibility of a double-dip recession.
Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Shareholders
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